Facing the global climate emergency, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) consistently emphasizes that the current decade is crucial for global climate action. The gradual decarbonization of energy systems is critical and forms the foundation for achieving the 2050 net-zero emissions target. Taiwan initiated its energy transition plan in 2016, aiming for a 20% share of renewable energy by 2025, including solar photovoltaics (PV). However, due to geographical constraints, Taiwan has explored aquavoltaics as a primary source. Although this innovative combination of solar PV systems and aquaculture offers long-term benefits, it causes short-term disruptions in fisheries and raises environmental and social controversies, implicating food security issues.
To reconcile potential conflicts between renewable energy development and traditional fisheries, this study proposes using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to optimize the decision-making process. Through quantitative assessments, a localized multi-tier decision-making framework can be established among diverse stakeholders. This framework enables decision-makers to accurately identify key concerns of fishermen, balancing energy development and food security based on scientific foundations and necessary transparency. Furthermore, this study suggests that this decision-making approach can evolve into an AI-assisted decision support system, making policies more aligned with actual needs.
1. Introduction
1.1 Critical Timeline for Net-Zero 2050
Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 has become a universally shared objective following the signing of the Paris Agreement. Scientific research, notably from the IPCC, underscores the critical importance of the coming years in accelerating efforts to achieve this goal (IPCC, 2023). Jim Skea, co-chair of the IPCC, stressed, “It’s now or never, if we want to limit global warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F). Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible”.[1]
The IPCC further highlights that even to limit warming to around 2°C (3.6°F), global greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025 and decrease by 25% by 2030. Commitments made at international climate summits, such as COP meetings, reinforce this urgency. The message from COP28 is clear: transitioning away from fossil fuels in an equitable manner and accelerating actions in this critical decade are essential to achieving net-zero by 2050.[2]
1.2 The policy implication of Renewable Energy development to Food Security
The relationship between energy and food security is increasingly impacted by extreme climate events, from droughts to floods,[3] which directly threaten the stability of the food supply chain (Brown et al., 2015; Mal et al., 2018; Sá et al., 2017). By promoting carbon neutrality policies and practices using renewable energy, we aim not only to reduce the threat of global warming but also to establish a core strategy for ensuring sufficient and safe food for all (IPCC, 2022).
Increasing biomass for food, feed, and renewable energy, along with promoting sustainable agriculture and integrating renewables into agricultural practices, can foster significant synergies. These synergies can support sustainable food production and contribute to a more resilient food system, yielding substantial long-term benefits (Majeed et al., 2023).
However, there are immediate challenges to consider. Renewable energy sources such as bioenergy, solar, and wind require significant land use, which can directly compete with the cultivation of food crops. Although these energy sources reduce dependence on fossil fuels, their substantial demand for land may limit food production, thereby impacting food security (Zhuang et al., 2022). UNCCD (Fritsche et al., 2017) highlights that Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG 2), which focuses on ending hunger, achieving food security and improved nutrition, and promoting sustainable agriculture, has high land relevance. This indicates that energy production and land use are deeply embedded in SDG 2, thus requiring careful management to ensure that neither compromises the other. Managing the balance between energy production and land use is essential to ensure that both are sustainable and do not interfere with each other, particularly concerning the agricultural and fisheries use of land for food production.
Effective policies must address both the long-term benefits and the immediate challenges of renewable energy development to safeguard food security while advancing towards carbon neutrality. In formulating energy development policies, governments must incorporate food security as a central consideration, ensuring that the development of new energy sources is balanced with food production. This approach will help maintain a sustainable balance between energy needs and agricultural productivity, ultimately contributing to both climate resilience and global food security.
2. Energy and Food Dilemma: A Case Study of Taiwanese Fisheries
2.1 Energy Policy
From 2018 to 2023, Taiwan’s energy dependency on imports remained extremely high, with 98.06% of energy imported in 2018[4] and 96.7% in 2023.[5] Addressing the challenge of Taiwan’s low energy self-sufficiency has thus become a crucial and pressing policy objective.
In response, Taiwan’s 2018 Renewable Energy Policy set ambitious targets, including installing 20GW of solar power by 2025. This target comprises 17GW of ground-mounted systems and 3GW of rooftop installations. Additionally, the policy aims to establish 6.5GW of wind power and promote other renewable energy sources. By 2025, the goal is for renewable energy to account for 20% (27GW) of Taiwan’s total power generation.[6]
To achieve this goal, Taiwan, as an island nation, faces significant challenges in developing renewable energy due to limited land area and land fragmentation. These conditions make it difficult to deploy large-scale ground-mounted PV systems. To address this issue, Taiwan has prioritized the dual-use of land, integrating the aquavoltaics systems as a key focus[7] for solar power development.
2.2 The Challenge Under the Energy Policy
The fisheries sector holds a significant position in Taiwan’s economy and has a substantial impact on the global fish supply.[8] Consequently, the implementation of Taiwan’s aquavoltaics policy has led to significant impacts on the sector, especially inland water aquaculture. These include reduced production, rising fish prices, and the monoculture of crops, as species that coexist more easily with PV panels are chosen.
Pursuing net-zero emissions has become one of the most critical national objectives today. The energy sector, thriving in this era, has become a “blue ocean” of immense potential benefits. Consequently, energy development often benefits from comprehensive policy planning, and the viewpoints of energy stakeholders receive considerable attention and importance. As a result, fishermen directly impacted by these policies typically need to take to the streets to voice their demands and fight for their rights, often leading to a stagnation[9] of overall policy implementation.
From this, it is evident that national policies must consider all potential impacts at the planning stage and involve public participation and stakeholder discussions to prevent overlooking crucial factors. Otherwise, unforeseen consequences post-implementation can reduce the efficiency and success of developments, potentially damage public trust in the government, and trigger more conflicts, thereby delaying project timelines.
3. Application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
3.1 The Main Barrier of Discussing Energy Issues
Energy issues typically encompass various aspects. Different perspectives can lead to diverse and sometimes conflicting viewpoints. These issues are often referred to as “wicked problems,” characterized by their complex and poorly structured nature, with interconnected causes and impacts, and usually lacking clear solutions (Rittel & Webber, 1973). Therefore, traditional methods of stakeholder communication often fail to highlight these multifaceted values and frequently result in a zero-sum dilemma. It is difficult to truly reflect the diversity of opinions in the final policy decisions using conventional stakeholder communication approaches.
3.2 Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
This study aims to address the challenges of traditional stakeholder communication by applying the AHP, which is a structured technique for tackling complex decision problems. It breaks down the decision problem into smaller components, establishes a multi-level hierarchy to decompose decision goals, criteria, and conducts pairwise comparisons and quantitative evaluations. This method is particularly effective in accommodating conflicting, multidimensional, immeasurable, and incomparable sets of objectives, making it suitable for situations involving multiple interest groups and extensive participation (Sellak et al., 2017).
Thus, employing the AHP to address complex issues in policy implementation facilitates effective communication between policymakers and stakeholders and integrates and balances multiple interests through formalized public participation in the decision-making process. This approach increases the transparency and credibility of the entire procedure with scientific data. Consequently, it ensures that while pursuing new energy development, the importance of food security is not overlooked.
4. Empirical Study: AHP Analysis of Aquavoltaics Policy
4.1 Localized Framework for Analyzing Objective and Factors
This study develops a framework (e.g. Fig. 1) tailored to the local context of Taiwan to analyze all factors influencing the implementation of the aquavoltaics policy. In this empirical research, experts from academia, industry, government agencies, and environmental protection groups participated. The backgrounds of these 30 experts include economics, aquaculture, environmental science, and energy. They completed the AHP survey, ensuring a comprehensive perspective was achieved.
4.2 Discrepancy Between Stakeholder Opinions and Policy Implementation
In categorizing and analyzing different stakeholder groups of the AHP results, this study observed a significant finding regarding the “Return on Investment” (ROI). The PV groups value ROI more than three times as much as the aquaculture groups or the overall results of the analysis (e.g. Fig. 2). Currently, the PV groups are the primary implementers of the aquavoltaics policy in Taiwan, with extensive policy measures designed to address their emphasis on ROI.
In contrast, compared to the significant attention given to the voices of the PV groups, the aquaculture the place more than twice the importance on “Aquatic Products Marketing “than both the PV groups and the overall results of the analysis (e.g. Fig. 3). There is a need for more detailed planning and arrangements to support the emphasis of the aquaculture groups on “Aquatic Products Marketing.”
4.3 Overlooking the Food Security Issue
The concept of “Aquatic Products Marketing” encompasses “food security,” which involves the livelihoods of fishermen, the supply and demand of the fish market, and thereby affects the overall economy of the nation and even the international supply of fish. Observations from the single factor perspective show that the aquaculture have specific and meaningful demands regarding “Aquatic Products Marketing” (e.g. Fig. 3). From an overall perspective, “Aquatic Products Marketing” (ranked 5th) (e.g. Fig. 4) should receive at least as much attention as the investments of PV operators (ranked 13th) (e.g. Fig. 4) when implementing the aquavoltaics policy.
It is evident that traditional stakeholder communication methods may inevitably lead to a focus predominantly on specific viewpoints or majority decisions, potentially resulting in the underrepresentation of other significant opinions and less comprehensive planning within the policy.
4.4 Address The Current Predicament: An AHP Approach
This study addresses above dilemma using the AHP approach to clearly present the opinions of different stakeholders in a quantifiable manner. The key features include:
n Identifying key factors that need attention.
n Measuring and assessing weights from different dimensions and perspectives.
n Understanding the concerns and priorities of different stakeholders regarding these factors.
This method enables policy designers to achieve coherence among different stakeholders. “Stakeholder Communication” and “Institutional Framework” are both ranked second in importance from an overall perspective in the aquavoltaics policy (e.g., Fig. 4). The findings support the use of the AHP to address complex policy issues.
By presenting results from different dimensions and perspectives this approach ensures all viewpoints are reflected. This scientific method facilitates effective communication between policymakers and stakeholders, ensuring immediacy, transparency, and interactivity of information. Establishing these opinions within a clear institutional framework provides the necessary legal and policy guidance for implementing policies, thereby enhancing policy acceptance and execution efficiency.
5. Conclusion and Future Prospect
This study integrates humanistic issues into our aquavoltaics policy and leverages technology to harmonize these elements. This approach promotes sustainability and serves as a model for future renewable energy policies. By balancing diverse perspectives and considering all factors comprehensively, this study not only enhance policy effectiveness but also ensure governmental transparency and public engagement, propelling us towards a sustainable and resilient future.
Looking ahead, we acknowledge that the AHP method, while effective, is complex and time-consuming, presenting a higher barrier to entry for participants. In this study, we have created a localized framework for the aquavoltaics policy, providing an excellent structure for discussion. In the future, this framework will evolve into an interactive platform allowing users to engage directly in discussions on various themes and cases. Each criterion or factor will be treated as an independent topic of discussion, with user interactions—such as clicks and participation—informing the importance weights of each factor.
By integrating AI technology, this platform can dynamically adjust these weights, reducing the tediousness of traditional AHP surveys and increasing accuracy in reflecting public opinion. Additionally, AI can recommend related case studies and topics that interest users, promoting better understanding and communication. An AI-assisted platform will make the decision-making process more transparent and scientific, allowing the results to accurately express public sentiment and the perspectives of all stakeholders.
Acknowledgments
This presentation is part of the NSC project results sponsored by NSTC 111-2627-M-007-001. We would like to express our deepest gratitude to God for granting us the strength and wisdom to complete this work. Thanks to the guidance of the Lord’s grace, our work has proceeded smoothly.
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